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Don’t go there!

Perhaps ironically, one of the most famous 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse paintings is by a Russian:

  • Pestilence (on a White Horse -> COVID !?)
  • War (on a Red Horse -> PUTIN !?)
  • Famine (on a Black Horse -> HYPERINFLATION !?)
  • Death (on a Pale Horse -> TOO LATE !?)

 

For relevant updated news go to the EMMA press pages, or follow the following currently relevant (independent) news:
  • Meduza
  • DW
  • Ahead
‘Trusted people’. Russia may swap out its negotiators if Kyiv is invited to join talks with the United States, Meduza’s sources say

Russia and the United States have just completed a round of official talks for the first time since Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday focused on “normalizing relations” and charting a path toward ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, though neither Ukrainian nor European officials were invited to attend. According to Meduza’s sources, the Kremlin may shake up its delegation if Kyiv joins future talks. Special correspondents Andrey Pertsev and Svetlana Reiter report on who might stay and who could go. 

Trump says calls for new elections in Ukraine come from his administration. ‘That’s not a Russia thing.’

In a press conference on Tuesday, Donald Trump said his administration, not Russian negotiators, is pushing Ukraine to hold elections to test Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy as president. “When they want a seat at the table, you could say the people have to… wouldn’t the people of Ukraine have to say, like, ‘You know, it’s been a long time since we’ve had an election.’ That’s not a Russia thing. That’s something coming from me and coming from many other countries also,” the U.S. president told reporters.

‘Putin wants all of Ukraine’. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Vance’s message in Munich, Kyiv’s options, and Moscow’s long game

In the past week, negotiations over a possible ceasefire settlement in Ukraine have started unfolding at a dramatic pace. After U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected call with Vladimir Putin on February 12, statements from Trump’s team sent shockwaves through Kyiv, leaving officials reeling. The issue dominated the Munich Security Conference, prompting E.U. leaders to hold an emergency meeting in Paris over fears of exclusion from U.S.-Russia talks. On February 18, Russian and American representatives met in Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations — without Ukraine’s participation. A day earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Kyiv had not been informed of the talks and would not recognize their outcome. For more insight into how the Ukrainian authorities are likely feeling about the sudden shift in U.S.-Russia relations and the future of the war, BBC News Russian spoke to former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on the sidelines of the Munich conference.

U.S. and Russia agree to ‘begin working on a path’ to end war in Ukraine following talks in Saudi Arabia

On February 18, U.S. and Russian delegations met in Riyadh for the first official talks between the two countries since early 2022 — before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The ongoing war and ensuing break in relations between Russia and the West were central to the discussions. But Kyiv was neither informed of the talks ahead of time nor invited to attend. “Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine to be meaningless. We cannot recognize any agreements or decisions made about us without us. And we will not recognize such agreements,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Be that as it may, Russian and U.S. officials claim that the talks in Saudi Arabia resulted in an agreement to “begin working on a path” to ending the war. Here’s what the sides have said so far about what the talks did — or didn’t — accomplish.

Putin promises monthly payments of 65,000 rubles to Kursk refugees until region’s ‘complete liberation’ from Ukrainian occupation

Vladimir Putin has ordered the federal government to make monthly payments of 65,000 rubles ($710) to refugees in the Kursk region until all Ukrainian occupation forces are expelled. 

Russian drone strikes leave much of the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa without power, water, or heat. Meanwhile, European leaders will meet again in Paris to discuss the situation in Ukraine. DW has more.
A series of Russian disinformation operations have been trying to manipulate the upcoming German elections. How successful are they and what is the German government doing to resist?
Auto supplier Continental plans to shutter one plant in Germany, as the company has fallen short of financial targets, despite earlier cutbacks.
Russia's top diplomat and his US counterpart said they agreed to establish a process for settling the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy rejected any talks on the future of Ukraine behind its back. DW has more.
Craig and Lindsay Foreman were reportedly traveling around the world on motorbikes when they were detained in southern Iran in January. Authorities there have accused them of gathering information in several provinces.
Trump tariffs and insults spark national Canadian furor – Richard Mills
Trump tariffs and insults spark national Canadian furor – Richard Mills

2025.02.14

It’s déjà vu in Canada-US trade relations.

Over the weekend President Trump signed executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports of steel and aluminum — actions similar to what started a trade spat in 2018 during Trump’s first term as US president.

According to CTV News, The orders remove the exceptions and exemptions from Trump’s 2018 tariffs on steel, which excluded Canada and other countries from the duties.

Continue reading Trump tariffs and insults spark national Canadian furor – Richard Mills at Ahead of the Herd.

AOTH believes Kodiak Copper offers more investment upside – Richard Mills
AOTH believes Kodiak Copper offers more investment upside – Richard Mills

2025-02-14

Kodiak Copper’s (TSXV:KDK, OTCQB:KDKCF, Frankfurt:5DD1) management team, and the Discovery Group, have a successful, envious track record of shareholder returns.

Kodiak was established by chairman Chris Taylor of Great Bear fame. The founder and CEO of Great Bear Resources presided over its acquisition by Kinross Gold in 2022 for $1.8 billion.

The Discovery Group company is led by Claudia Tornquist, previously a general manager at Rio Tinto working with Rio’s copper operations.

Continue reading AOTH believes Kodiak Copper offers more investment upside – Richard Mills at Ahead of the Herd.

Copper price to remain elevated due to increasing demand for electricity and supply challenges – Richard Mills
Copper price to remain elevated due to increasing demand for electricity and supply challenges – Richard Mills

2025.02.08

“As we look towards 2050, we foresee global copper demand increasing by 70% to reach 50 million tonnes annually. This will be driven by copper’s role in both current and emerging technologies, as well as the world’s decarbonization goals,” says BHP’s chief commercial officer Rag Udd.

5-year copper price. Source: Kitco

The largest mining company in the world expects that by 2050 the energy transition sector will represent 23% of copper demand compared to the current 7%.

Continue reading Copper price to remain elevated due to increasing demand for electricity and supply challenges – Richard Mills at Ahead of the Herd.

Gold and silver prices are pushing higher. Here’s why – Richard Mills
Gold and silver prices are pushing higher. Here’s why – Richard Mills

2025.02.07

During Donald Trump’s first term as president, gold rose from $1,209 to $1,839. Factors included trade wars, geopolitical tensions and the covid-19 pandemic. Trump’s protectionism and MAGA rhetoric incited BRICS like China, Russia and India to move away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and increase their gold reserves, pushing gold higher.

Under President Biden, gold prices continued their upward climb, reaching $2,450 on May 20, 2024.

Continue reading Gold and silver prices are pushing higher. Here’s why – Richard Mills at Ahead of the Herd.

Is silver the best way to play the gold boom?
Is silver the best way to play the gold boom?

By Ernest Hoffman – Kitco News

Gold continues to beat the headwinds of high rates and a strong dollar amid its rally toward $3,000, but while the major drivers remain in place, silver may be the better play going forward, according to Tom Stevenson for Fidelity International.

After noting that gold prices have increased by a factor of 10 since 2000, and by over $1,000 since late 2023, Stevenson said the yellow metal really shouldn’t be this high.

Continue reading Is silver the best way to play the gold boom? at Ahead of the Herd.

 

2EMMA Featured Stories


Mandela’s Kiss Endures

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Nelson Mandela embrace at Mandela's home in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 13, 1990.

 

The 2024 Global Elections Super-Cycle

Stay tuned for continuous updates on elections around the world. Click on a country for the latest elections data and analysis.

  • Number of national elections to be held in 2024            18 of 68
  • Overall turnout (based on registered voters)                        63%
  • Total number of ballots cast in 18 elections                   467,094,737

 

Pulled conclusions from pooled data compilations

Using some of the world’s largest companies by market cap & some of the most quoted indices + two most sung alternatives: data for this millennia where available

  • At 134x, Apple is the absolute stock price growth winner; with Amazon at 45x and Google at 32x
  • Despite the lack of interest or dividends, gold at 6.6x looks good compared to any other stock or index!
  • Barrick Gold on the other hand seems to be poorly correlated to anything including the gold metal itself!?
  • But Barrick is the only stock producing negative correlations with most of the indices including a relatively high -0.77 with the Euronext100 index
  • If one wast trying to get something totally uncorrelated on purpose- it would be hard to beat: gold and the Euronext100 index at -0.03; or Barrick and the Hang Seng index at 0.04; or gold and Merck at 0.16; or BTC and the FTSE index at 0.19
  • Correlation against a basket of indices & alternatives is best in Disney and Google (0.81-0.82), albeit at different growth multiples
  • If an average historical P/E is somewhere in the 20x range, then the current S&P quoted average which is in high 30s is as warned high, BUT: only Amazon and Visa seem to be widely out of range (justified by growth in online transactions?), with many below current & historical averages
  • In the current world of no interest & no inflation, maybe the higher P/E averages are justified..? For how long, that is a different question…

For hedging ideas, other growth, correlations, or averages- take a look at the data set/:>  the Excel file: 2emma stock monitor or go to the Data Monitor

 

2EMMA Hall of Fame


 

The Economist – Graphic Detail

Almost like it was done by John Graphicon 🙂

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