Enslave
Profiteer
Rule
Don’t go there!
Perhaps ironically, one of the most famous 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse paintings is by a Russian:
- Pestilence (on a White Horse -> COVID !?)
- War (on a Red Horse -> PUTIN !?)
- Famine (on a Black Horse -> HYPERINFLATION !?)
- Death (on a Pale Horse -> TOO LATE !?)
- Meduza
- DW
- Ahead
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Ankara, where he plans to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as Ukraine–Russia negotiations are set to begin in Istanbul.
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin chose not to attend talks in Istanbul because Trump himself did not go.
Kseniia Petrova, a Harvard Medical School researcher from Russia, has been charged with smuggling for attempting to bring frog embryos into the United States, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts said.
A sculpture of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin has been unveiled in a passageway at the Taganskaya Metro Station in Moscow, architecture researcher Alexander Zinoviev reported on Thursday.
Russia launched an overnight wave of drone attacks across Ukraine, damaging homes and sparking fires, according to Ukrainian officials.
2025.05.14
Donald Trump has boldly imposed a new era of US economic policy dominated by tariffs, trade wars, and threats to the sovereignty of nations it has long considered allies (Canada, Denmark, Panama), as the second-term president aims to rewrite the rules of international trade mostly by disregarding them as he pursues an America-first agenda.
The cost to the United States of Trump’s trade war and “country takeover” rhetoric has already cost America its reputation.
Continue reading Is the US dollar done? – Richard Mills at Ahead of the Herd.
2025.05.12
Friday 9th May 2025
Rick Mills, Editor/ Publisher, Ahead of the Herd:
RM: I believe the United States current economic policies are driving us towards stagflation. And US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has mentioned, twice publicly, that he also thinks a lot about declining growth and rising inflation. The last time he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, “It’s only a matter of time until Trump’s tariffs stoke inflation, push up unemployment and weaken economic growth.” Which is Stagflation.
Continue reading The last safe haven #6 – Richard Mills at Ahead of the Herd.
I believe the United States current economic policies are driving us towards stagflation. And US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has mentioned, twice publicly, that he also thinks a lot about declining growth and rising inflation. The last time he said, and I’m paraphrasing here, “It’s only a matter of time until Trump’s tariffs stoke inflation, push up unemployment and weaken economic growth.” Which is Stagflation.
Stagflation is an excellent environment for commodities, gold, silver and related equities.
Some of the world’s largest mining companies, market analysis firms and bank are warning that this year, a massive shortfall will emerge for copper, which is now the world’s most critical metal.
Continue reading Video – Copper’s Rising Tide: Navigating the Market Shifts at Ahead of the Herd.
2025-05-09
China is by far the largest copper consumer and is the world’s number one refiner of the metal by a large margin.
Following the announced 90-day suspension of tariffs, the stock market rebounded and with it the price of copper.
The red metal is now trading at $4.62 a pound, 5% higher than the April 8 trough of $4.07. Year to date, the copper price is 7.5% stronger.
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Mandela’s Kiss Endures
The 2024 Global Elections Super-Cycle
Stay tuned for continuous updates on elections around the world. Click on a country for the latest elections data and analysis.
- Number of national elections to be held in 2024 18 of 68
- Overall turnout (based on registered voters) 63%
- Total number of ballots cast in 18 elections 467,094,737
Pulled conclusions from pooled data compilations
Using some of the world’s largest companies by market cap & some of the most quoted indices + two most sung alternatives: data for this millennia where available
- At 134x, Apple is the absolute stock price growth winner; with Amazon at 45x and Google at 32x
- Despite the lack of interest or dividends, gold at 6.6x looks good compared to any other stock or index!
- Barrick Gold on the other hand seems to be poorly correlated to anything including the gold metal itself!?
- But Barrick is the only stock producing negative correlations with most of the indices including a relatively high -0.77 with the Euronext100 index
- If one wast trying to get something totally uncorrelated on purpose- it would be hard to beat: gold and the Euronext100 index at -0.03; or Barrick and the Hang Seng index at 0.04; or gold and Merck at 0.16; or BTC and the FTSE index at 0.19
- Correlation against a basket of indices & alternatives is best in Disney and Google (0.81-0.82), albeit at different growth multiples
- If an average historical P/E is somewhere in the 20x range, then the current S&P quoted average which is in high 30s is as warned high, BUT: only Amazon and Visa seem to be widely out of range (justified by growth in online transactions?), with many below current & historical averages
- In the current world of no interest & no inflation, maybe the higher P/E averages are justified..? For how long, that is a different question…
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Ivan
Ivan
